Wednesday, 23 May 2018

Thursday 24th May 2018


3.35 Catterick

Some top yards represented here including the in-form Michael Bell. Neverbeen To Paris runs under a penalty and is 1lb well in after a decisive victory at Beverley - he must hold an excellent chance of following up. Poetic Steps showed much improvement for the step up to this trip last time out and is also a live contender.  Sir Michael Stoute is 3 from 7 over the past 5 seasons at Catterick so that puts Braemar in the mix, though he has gone up 7lbs without winning since the start of the season. The strong claims of those runners will hopefully make Arthenia a nice price.  She has run well in defeat on both of her starts this season and I think this daughter of Camelot has a race in her this season. She has raced in two good races this season and she is just starting to get the hang of things.

A Camelot filly costing 50,000 GNS. Arthenia was very green in the early stages of a strong novice race at Newbury on debut, staying on well in the final two furlongs. She produced a decent run in a good juvenile race on her third start after being very slowly away. There is stamina in the family so Arthenia will be well suited by a step up in trip. The first two in her third race are both now rated 94, which suggests she is starting life on a lenient mark.

1 pt win ARTHENIA (15/2 Betfair Sportsbook)

4.55 Goodwood

I am a little surprised to see Gather in a maiden first time up this season given she already qualifies for handicaps, but she is a filly I’ve been really looking forward to seeing as a three-year-old and she should improve for the step up in trip. I hope she doesn’t ruin her handicap mark! Sacred Path is nicely bred but this could be sharp enough first time out.

Juddmonte bred, out of a Dansili mare, who is one of the best dam sires. Gather was pitched into a class two maiden on debut where she wasn’t disgraced. She then ran two solid races on the all-weather, which have both worked out well. On her second start, she was a clear second, beaten four lengths by a horse giving her three lbs, who is now rated 99. She was beaten less than a length on her third start. The fourth has since won, putting up an RPR of 86 in the process and the 6th horse in the race (beaten over 8 lengths by Gather) has won since and now rated 80. This suggests Gather is well handicapped off 79. Her dam was unraced at two and has produced some nice 9-10f horses. I’m not sure exactly what trip she wants but I think she’s currently very well handicapped and ought to pick up some decent prizes as a three-year-old.

1 pt win GATHER (3/1 Bet365)

7.05 Sandown

Three horses I put up at the start of the season run in what looks a really good race. Without Parole is short but looks very smart – he gave Ostilio 7 lbs and a 6 length beating last time. Ostilio then went and won a handicap off 84, going up 6 lbs in the process. This could be a stepping-stone to Royal Ascot.  I don’t think 6/1 for the St James’ Palace is too bad given not much from the 2000 guineas looks likely to go for the race. Stephensons Rocket has lots of ability but must learn to settle better; once he does he may be better over 10f. Fast ground will be in his favour at Sandown, however. Glendevon is the one I’d be most inclined to backing each-way (33/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook). I was so impressed with him when he won second time out. I think he was badly in need of the run at Chelmsford last time where he was narrowly beaten by two race-fit rivals having run from a poor draw.

Glendevon (Richard Hughes)
Sire – Scat Daddy. Dam – Flip Flop

For me, this was probably the most impressive winner of a novice race over the winter. On debut, Glendevon was very green and keen throughout before staying on very strongly into second, pulling clear of the rest of the field and given quite an easy ride in doing so. On second start he made all, really kicking clear about a furlong and a half out with a very impressive stride length. He destroyed some quite useful horses in behind. The second won next time and will begin in handicap company off a mark of 90. I hope this horse runs the Craven Stakes before going onto the 2000 Guineas (currently 33/1) if handling Newmarket.

Stephensons Rocket
Green out of the stalls and a little keen on debut. Looked to have the race won but ran green in front and outpaced before being beaten by a more experienced rival at Sandown. He didn’t have to improve to go one better at Redcar next time, though he was quite keen again. He showed a good attitude at Redcar, pulling further away from the field the further he went. The form of that win could be questionable but Stephensons Rocket is a big scopey colt who should be competitive in top mile and half handicaps this season or even group races if he learns to settle. He hasn’t been given a mark yet but a best guess would be mid 80s.

Without Parole (John Gosden)
Sire – Frankel. Dam – Without You Babe

Hard not to be impressed by the manner of his victory on debut at Newcastle, but it is important to remember he was getting 4lbs from the second and third horses. He is a half-brother to Tamarkuz and could be absolutely anything, however, I may have raised expectations of this one after his trainer sent Enable to win at Newcastle on her debut.

Tuesday, 22 May 2018

Wednesday 23rd May 2018 and Progress Report


A quieter couple of days, so an update on my performance so far and one from the handicappers to follow running tomorrow. 

5.55 Kempton

Elusif is from my handicappers to follow and switches back to the all-weather after seasonal reappearance at Nottingham; a race which I think was quite strong for the grade. Having said that, Elusif was very disappointing that day, looking well off the pace and not good enough to ever mount a challenge. The handicapper has put him down 3lbs for that run which would put him in with a shout based on his debut effort at Ascot. He does not seem to have progressed from that run and with the Marco Botti yard in poor form at the moment; I am reluctantly posting this selection. I would probably wait before backing him as he seems quite easy to back at the moment and his price may drift in the morning. Reshaan (6/1 Bet365) looks the most likely winner as his best run to date was at Kempton and his opening mark is fair based on that. At bigger prices, Safe Waters (16/1 Paddy Power, William Hill) looks interesting; she produced her best two performances when held up, but last time she raced prominently and was still quite green, jumping the path at Lingfield. A return to more patient tactics may see her finishing closer here as she is on quite a good mark.

By Elusive Quality, who’s progeny can progress nicely from two to three. He was promising on debut but went backwards on subsequent runs. He probably didn’t suit the all-weather on his third start so that run can be dismissed. His dam’s best RPR was 101 on firm ground. Elusif is a risky proposition based on what he has done so far, but I think there will be improvement on a decent surface over a mile as a three-year-old.

1 pt win SAFE WATERS (16/1 Paddy Power, William Hill)
0.5 pts each way ELUSIF  (20/1 Paddy Power 3 places, 16/1 Ladbrokes, Coral 4 places)




Dark horses and handicappers to follow:

Date
Horse
Early Price
SP
Position
Points Total
30/03/18
Arthenia
14/1
14/1
4th
-1
04/04/18
Becky Sharp
20/1
33/1
8th
-1
11/04/18
Master Grey
6/1
9/4
8th
-1
17/04/18
Symbolization
5/6
4/6
2nd
-1
19/04/18
Sheika Reika
2/1
5/4
1st
2
20/04/18
Bombyx
11/4
9/4
2nd
-1
21/04/18
Camden Town
33/1
16/1
7th
-1
23/04/18
Ingenuity
7/4
9/4
3rd
-1
23/04/18
Stream Song
4/7
1/1
1st
1
27/04/18
Spark of War
16/1
16/1
9th
-1
28/04/18
Moxy Mares
10/1
7/1
1st
10
28/04/18
Camden Town
16/1
11/2
4th
-1
30/04/18
Red Miracle
9/2
8/1
7th
-1
30/04/18
Master Grey
5/2
5/2
1st
2.5
01/05/18
Diocletian
4/1
2/1
3rd
-1
01/05/18
Chantresse
16/1
6/1
4th
-1
01/05/18
Contrebasse
11/1
20/1
10th
-1
05/05/18
Stephensons Rocket
10/1
13/2
5th
-1
05/05/18
Symbolization
7/4
7/4
1st
1.75
05/05/18
Victory Chime
12/1
6/1
1st
12
10/05/18
Glendevon
13/8
5/2
3rd
-1
10/05/18
Arthenia
16/1
28/1
5th
-1
12/05/18
Antagonist
11/2
7/1
10th
-1
12/05/18
Elusif
16/1
33/1
7th
-1
14/05/18
Silver Crescent
8/1
9/2
2nd
-1
14/05/18
Port of Call
12/1
10/1
4th
-1
18/05/18
Victory Chime
6/1
9/2
6th
-1
21/05/18
Narodowa
12/1
25/1
3rd
-1

Total as of 21/05/18                                                                                                                                            +7.25 pts

Eye catchers mentioned in the blog (no specific bets advised, but put up for reference)

Horse
Early Price
SP
Position
Win or EW
Points Total
Highland Sky
16/1
25/1
Last
EW
-1
Cogri
12/1
16/1
2nd
EW
2.5
Imagintive
12/1
11/2
7th
EW
-1
Mirror Mirror

14/1
6th
EW
-1
Crystal Hope
14/1
1st
EW
8.75
The Navigator
7/1
4/1
1st
EW
4.375
Wadilsafa
4/1
15/8
1st
4
Give And Take
9/2
7/2
1st
4.5





Tuesday 24th July 2018

  19.40 Chelmsford Hollydaze may prove tough to beat, putting up an excellent RPR last time, but the verdict goes to ...