Tuesday 1st May 2018

Red Miracle drifted to about double the price she was the night before and ran like she needed the run. She will improve next time and for better ground.
Master Grey is one who really improved for his first run and won at 5/2. He looks like one to follow over staying trips.
The Navigator was a nice winner but was still very green. He never really travelled and probably benefited from a pace collapse. He looks a useful prospect and will improve over 10f. 

Two runners from the handicappers to follow are out tomorrow

2.50 Brighton

A couple of interesting sorts here. Mick Channon is in great form and Rocky Shores has a fair opening mark after the second last time bolted up at Ripon. Mail Order is a Nathaniel filly who also starts on a fair mark and is interesting significantly stepped up in trip. Diocletian is a big Camelot colt who I think will make a nice three-year-old. He probably needs decent ground to be at his best.

Stayed on well quite well without ever getting a proper run in what looks like a very good Sandown maiden on debut. He then had two runs at Newmarket where he didn't handle the track particularly well. The first time over a mile getting outpaced and staying on nicely under hands and heels then last time over 10f where he still looked quite green. The dam was a half-sister to two 10f-listed winners so Diocletian could be best over 10f as a three-year-old and may be suited by a flat track.

1 pt win DIOCLETIAN (4/1 Bet365)

3.00 Nottingham

Just 8 runners but quite competitive. Last Enchantment finished well from a poor position last time and may find this track more suitable. Cosmopolitan Queen is nowhere near the class of her Sister, Arabian Queen but doesn’t need to be to win this. Chantresse was selected at the start of the season and should improve this year.

A Karl Burke filly whose best two runs of her three to date have come on soft ground. She made good late headway at Catterick on her third start, the form of which looks somewhat questionable. There are mixed messages in her pedigree regarding ideal trip, but she is a half-sister to Iveagh Gardens (RPR 109), who acted best of heavy ground. Her mark isn’t that lenient but she has shown some promise on her first three starts and should be able to pick up a handicap on ground with some ease in it.

1 pt win CHANTRESSE (12/1 Paddy Power)
(Opened up 16/1 with Power)

Monday 30th April 2018

Moxy Mares was a nice winner on Saturday, advised at 10/1. Following the race, his trainer stated that he is still very weak and may only run a couple more times this season before being put away and preserved for a four-year-old campaign. The winning distance was less than a length so I would hope the handicapper wouldn’t put him up any more than 6lbs. I’d be confident Moxy Mares could win again off 6 lbs higher. 

Camden Town went off 11/2 having opened up 25/1 with a couple of firms and was a shade disappointing. He was unruly in the stalls so that may have impacted his performance. Unfortunately he looks quite a slow horse with limited size and scope. On Monday, there are runners from the handicappers to follow series and one eye-catcher from the winter.

3.05 Salisbury

A race that shouldn’t take too much winning. The form of Red Miracle’s third run at Nottingham has taken a bit of a boost over the past couple of weeks with Crystal Hope and Sheikha Reika bolting up on their seasonal reappearance. A step up in trip will certainly suit this horse and she is likely to need even further in time. I’d be slightly concerned if the ground remains heavy and the stable form of Rod Millman isn’t the most inspiring. Can Can Sixty Two would be the one I’d be most worried about. She starts handicapping off a reasonable mark, is race fit and will also improve for the step up in trip.

Made an encouraging debut at Salisbury in a decent looking event (the second, sixth and eighth have won since). She looked unsuited by the heavy ground on her second start. Her final start to date was in a strong looking maiden at Nottingham, where not many horses got into the race. She was given an easy time of it once beaten and didn’t have the pace to go with the leaders. She has loads of stamina in her pedigree - related to Keys and her dam is a sister to Clowance who finished second in an Irish Leger. She hasn’t been disgraced in some strong races to date, just lacking pace in the closing stages. She has ability and has been given a very workable mark.

1 pt win RED MIRACLE (9/2 Bet365)

4.15 Salisbury

After questioning the stable form of Rod Millman, it might be slightly worrying that my second selection comes from the same yard. Master Grey was terrible last time out, having been a well-backed favourite. He gets another chance over 1m6f. Pollyissimo is the main danger.

90,000 GNS yearling, brother to the useful dual listed winner, Carnachy. Has shown signs of ability on his first three runs before being gelded. The first was over 6f at Nottingham where he was both outpaced and green before starting to understand his job late on to pass a few horses. He was able to run up with the pace on his second start before fading and then being badly squeezed and hampered. His third run looked very much like an ‘educational’ run, never troubling the leaders and given a hands and heels ride. Master Grey definitely has ability and will only be able to show his best when upped in trip. His opening mark looks quite lenient.

1 pt win MASTER GREY (5/2 Bet365)

3.30 Thirsk

Tamkeen is likely to be the favourite and he’s had enough time to get his head in front so I’m looking to take him on. An eye-catcher over the winter was The Navigator, who ran a nice race on debut in behind Stephensons Rocket at Redcar. The Navigator showed signs of inexperience that day and I thought he might need some headgear. His best trip will be over further in time but I’d be hopeful of a big run tomorrow.

Saturday 28th April 2018

Today’s selections in summary:

Spark of War – Pretty disappointing, but will give another chance.

Stephensons Rocket – Non-runner after the ground went against him.

Crystal Hope – Really impressive and won at 14/1. A nice run from Give and Take in second under a penalty.

Mirror Mirror – Travelled nicely into the race but drop in trip did not suit. Given an educational ride. Now qualifies for a handicap mark next time. Interesting.

Humble Gratitude – Well backed but ultimately disappointing.

Overall a successful day. Now for Saturday’s selections.

3.45 Haydock

I think Knighted is the right favourite based on his useful second run at Nottingham, where the first three have all stepped up on their effort since. Moxy Mares was quite unlucky in his two-year-old runs and has been crying out for a step up to 1 mile. This race doesn’t have great depth so I think he is overpriced, though he does have the tendency to be a little slow from the starting stalls. Of those at bigger prices, Finnion Fox is interesting at 18/1. The handicapper has put him down 3lbs for a run over an unsuitable 6f on handicap debut at Pontefract as a two-year-old. He was quite an expensive purchase (his dam sire is notably Pivotal), so more will be expected as a three-year-old.

By Motivator and out of a listed-placed sprinter in France, Moxy Mares only cost 16,500 euros as a yearling. He made a very promising debut at Doncaster where he was slowly away but stayed on very well to finish third. Four horses have come out of that race and won since. Moxy Mares then ran too bad to be true on the all-weather next time, where he did not look comfortable and didn’t suit the tight bends. He went back to Doncaster for his final run, which I think was most impressive of the three. He was held up in a slowly run race and ran on to finish third, best of the held-up horses. After these three runs he was gelded and put away for the season, probably with his three-year-old career in mind. His mark isn’t the most lenient but his third run is encouraging and the progeny of Motivator do progress well.

1 pt win MOXY MARES (10/1 William Hill)

7.15 Doncaster

Quite an interesting race for the grade. Casima is the favourite who saw out the trip very well last time. The handicapper may be slowly starting to catch up with her so I am looking to take her on.  Nuits St Georges in interesting; he ran respectably in his three juvenile starts, notably when second on debut to Dubhe, who comfortably won a handicap off 90 at Sandown earlier.  Candidate is always going to make a better three-year-old but the selection is from my handicappers to follow. Camden Town ran well enough last week at Nottingham and is always going to need time and experience. I think he will come on for that run and a step up in trip again will suit. The handicapper put him down 2lbs for that run, although he doesn’t get a 3lbs apprentice jockey allowance this time.

Godolphin bred and sold to Roger Fell before seeing a racecourse. This horse may have been written off too early, as is often the case with plenty of well-bred horses. Camden Town was well beaten behind the mighty impressive Without Parole on his third start. Although he was soundly beaten, he did show some signs of ability and is almost certain to be better at three than at two. Camden Town is a half-brother to 2m hurdle winner Chesterfield and may be worth risking in middle distance handicaps off a low mark.

1 pt win CAMDEN TOWN (16/1 Paddy Power)

(This selection was 25/1 at around 6pm)

Elsewhere there isn’t much that catches my eye. It might be worth having a small each-way play on Via Via in the 2.45 at Leicester. I always thought the Lincoln would be strong this year and it’s already starting to look that way. Via Via was quite unlucky that day and showed plenty of speed so the step down to 7f shouldn’t pose any problems. He has plenty to do on ratings, but he is lightly raced and connections have always thought a lot of him.  He was a bigger price last night but 20/1 available this morning seems reasonable.