Hollydaze may prove tough to beat, putting up an excellent RPR last time,
but the verdict goes to Tum Tum, who represents an in-form stable and is bred
to be better than his mark.
Half-brother to Travel Brother
(formerly Van Der Neer), third in the 2000 Guineas behind Dawn Approach. Tum
Tum made an encouraging debut at Newmarket, staying on for fifth in a race
where the fourth, sixth and seventh have won since (First three home haven’t
been seen since the race). He was a beaten favourite on second start, but the
run was still promising as he was hampered a couple of times in the final two
furlongs. The winner of that race is now rated 87. The sixth and seventh have
also won novice races since. On his final start as a 2-year-old, he bumped into
the useful looking Glencadam Master. He comfortably beat the rest of the field
and wasn’t given a hard race when it became clear he didn’t have the pace to
match the winner. His siblings have won over a range of distances from 6f to
10f, though they have mainly been by sprinting stallions. This horse should get
at least 8-10f and be very competitive off this mark.
1 pt win TUM TUM (9/2 general)
4.20 Newcastle
Miss Bates isn’t in my handicappers to follow but I think is worth a
bet. She didn’t run a bad race at Thirsk
last time after missing the break and was given an easy enough ride when beat,
so it is interesting she is turned out again pretty quickly. She is 3 lbs lower
than when putting up a decent effort (beat 2.5 lengths) over course and
distance last year. Ann Duffield is in good form at present and the application
of first time cheek pieces adds to her case.
1 pt win MISS BATES (9/1 Bet365)
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