Showing posts with label Horse racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Horse racing. Show all posts

Monday, 16 April 2018

Tuesday 17th April 2018

Dark Horses


3.35 Newmarket


Symbolization (Charlie Appleby)
Sire – Cape Cross. Dam – Yorkshire Lass

By the excellent sire Cape Cross, whose progeny progress well. The dam has won over a mile and a half and two miles one furlong so I would expect Symbolization to be able to race over middle distances as a three-year-old. He was strongly fancied on debut in a Newmarket maiden where he ran very respectably in second behind the 99-rated Vintager. He didn’t quite have the pace of the winner, which isn’t surprising given his breeding. He pulled three lengths clear of Chilean, who ran well in an excellent renewal of the Racing Post Trophy (and has recently won a French group three). Symbolization built on that debut run next time when beating Glendevon at Kempton. He is a big colt who will make a three-figure horse this season. Current price 5/6 (Paddy Power).

Two Gay Kelleway horses are worth mentioning tomorrow. Robsdelight runs in the 1.50 at Newmarket and bumped into a useful Godolphin horse on debut. He ran a really nice race on debut although he may find 7f too sharp here.  He is generally 8/1.

The second is Pastime in the 5.20.  Ran well over 1 mile last time at Doncaster, a trip that he doesn’t quite get.  The handicapper has put him down 1lb for that run and tomorrow he is back to his favoured 7f.  I think he is overpriced at 20/1 (Boylesports).


Thursday, 29 March 2018

Friday 30th March 2018


Friday 30th March 2018

An excellent days racing tomorrow, the selection is from the last at Newcastle

4.55 Newcastle

A Camelot filly costing 50,000 GNS. Arthenia was very green in the early stages of a strong novice race at Newbury on debut, staying on well in the final two furlongs. She produced a decent run in a good juvenile race on her third start after being very slowly away. There is stamina in the family so Arthenia will be well suited by a step up in trip. The first two in her third race are both now rated 94, which suggests she is starting life on a lenient mark.

Only five runners but a strong looking race for the grade. Arthenia is the outsider of the five, but I do expect her to run better than her price suggests. Rude Awakening was impressive on handicap debut for Sir Mark Prescott and there could be much more to come. Casey Jones has won both starts to date for John Gosden and put up an RPR of 88 at Newcastle over a mile last time, s 85 could be a good opening mark. We Are The World is only up 2lbs for winning at Wolverhampton but that was a slowly run race so the form may not be up to much. Dawn Dancer is a half-brother to the late Ballet Concerto so may improve now a three-year-old.  

I am hoping for a good run from Arthenia here, she might not be good enough to win at this stage but I do think she is overpriced.

1 pt win ARTHENIA (14/1 Sky Bet, Power)

Wednesday, 28 March 2018

Dark Horses To Follow For 2018


Ten horses to follow for the 2018 flat season. I have tried to include the less obvious horses that have raced at the end of the flat season and over the winter.

Cross Counter (Charlie Appleby)
Sire – Teofilo. Dam – Waitress.

Made a very eye-catching debut at Wolverhampton where he was the lesser fancied of the two Godolphin runners.  Cross Counter fell out of the stalls that day then ran quite wide throughout before effortlessly sweeping round the field to win under hands and heals, pulling further away the further he went. I was quite disappointed when he turned out again in January as would no longer be under the radar going into the 2018 flat season. He most likely needed the experience after running so green on debut. He was more professional on second start and bolted up under a penalty. He isn’t entered in the Derby but is a very exciting prospect for this season.


Ejtyah (David Simcock)
Sire – Frankel. Dam – Darysina.

Ran only once as a two-year-old, in a small novice event at Chelmsford.  Although the official winning margin was just half a length, the front two pulled four lengths clear of the other horses. The form of those other horses in behind does not look strong, however. She settled at the back of the field, before making a sustained effort in the straight. Jamie Spencer gave her just one stroke with the whip to which she responded and won a shade cosily. David Simcock said after the race she is a horse with a future that will eventually make a good stayer.


Glendevon (Richard Hughes)
Sire – Scat Daddy. Dam – Flip Flop

For me, this was probably the most impressive winner of a novice race over the winter. On debut, Glendevon was very green and keen throughout before staying on very strongly into second, pulling clear of the rest of the field and given quite an easy ride in doing so. On second start he made all, really kicking clear about a furlong and a half out with a very impressive stride length. He destroyed some quite useful horses in behind. The second won next time and will begin in handicap company off a mark of 90. I hope this horse runs the Craven Stakes before going onto the 2000 Guineas (currently 33/1) if handling Newmarket.


Mr Ritz (Jeremy Noseda)
Sire – Oasis Dream. Dam - Que Puntual

A half-brother to Oceanographer, Mr Ritz was impressive on his only start. He was drawn widest of all 13 runners, didn’t break very well from the stalls but still managed to get a very handy position throughout the race. He then battled it out with a horse that had already had a run; beating it whilst running green in the straight and pulling ten lengths clear of the rest of the field. What was even more impressive is that the horse was extremely hard to pull up after the race. This will make a very exciting three-year-old.


Photographer (John Gosden)
Sire – New Approach. Dam – Approach

Very well related – a half-brother to Midas Touch and Coronet, unsurprisingly Photographer made his debut over 10f. He raced keenly throughout but still picked up very well in the final straight and stayed on very well to the line. You could say the second was a bit unlucky as Photographer got first run on him that day and both look very promising types.  John Gosden’s colt can be backed at 50/1 for the Derby.


Showroom (Mark Johnston)
Sire – Motivator. Dam – Lemon Twist

Looked smart on debut at Goodwood.  Showroom looked like a strong galloper as he made all and powered away from the rest of the field. He could be anything and is worth keeping an eye on this season.


Symbolization (Charlie Appleby)
Sire – Cape Cross. Dam – Yorkshire Lass

By the excellent sire Cape Cross, whose progeny progress well. The dam has won over a mile and a half and two miles one furlong so I would expect Symbolization to be able to race over middle distances as a three-year-old. He was strongly fancied on debut in a Newmarket maiden where he ran very respectably in second behind the 99-rated Vintager. He didn’t quite have the pace of the winner, which isn’t surprising given his breeding. He pulled three lengths clear of Chilean, who ran well in an excellent renewal of the Racing Post Trophy. Symbolization built on that debut run next time when beating Glendevon at Kempton. He is a big colt who will make a three-figure horse this season.


The Revenant (Hugo Palmer)
Sire – Dubawi. Dam – Hazel Lavery

I was impressed this horse’s attitude on debut, where he battled on well to the line to comfortably beat a horse that is now rated 87. He took a bit of time to get going that day but he is out of a mare who won over one and a half miles and preferred cut in the ground so will eventually be better when upped in trip. He then ran in a conditions race on heavy ground at Epsom. He came third in this race but I think he will turn out to be the best horse in the race. The front two ran prominently throughout in quite a slowly run race, whereas, The Revenant was held up in last. When The Revenant mounted his effort he ran all over the track and looked quite inexperienced. I think he will have learnt a lot from that and can currently be backed at 66/1 for the Derby.


Wadilsafa (Owen Burrows)
Sire – Frankel. Dam – Rumoush

A half-brother to Talaayeb and Muntazah, Wadilsafa has raced once and is still a maiden. He ran in an excellent maiden at Ascot behind Herculean, just lacking the pace of the winner. The race was over seven furlongs so he will appreciate a step up in trip. The form of that maiden is working out quite well, as Archie McKellar (had race experience), was back in third and is now rated 103.  Merlin Magic was five lengths behind Wadilsafa and deemed good enough to run in the Racing Post Trophy. This horse should contend group races this season.


Without Parole (John Gosden)
Sire – Frankel. Dam – Without You Babe

Hard not to be impressed by the manner of his victory on debut at Newcastle, but it is important to remember he was getting 4lbs from the second and third horses. He is a half-brother to Tamarkuz and could be absolutely anything, however, I may have raised expectations of this one after his trainer sent Enable to win at Newcastle on her debut.

Tuesday 24th July 2018

  19.40 Chelmsford Hollydaze may prove tough to beat, putting up an excellent RPR last time, but the verdict goes to ...