Friday 30th March 2018

Friday 30^th March 2018

An excellent days racing tomorrow, the selection is from the last at Newcastle

4.55 Newcastle

A Camelot filly costing 50,000 GNS. Arthenia was very green in the early stages of a strong novice race at Newbury on debut, staying on well in the final two furlongs. She produced a decent run in a good juvenile race on her third start after being very slowly away. There is stamina in the family so Arthenia will be well suited by a step up in trip. The first two in her third race are both now rated 94, which suggests she is starting life on a lenient mark.

Only five runners but a strong looking race for the grade. Arthenia is the outsider of the five, but I do expect her to run better than her price suggests. Rude Awakening was impressive on handicap debut for Sir Mark Prescott and there could be much more to come. Casey Jones has won both starts to date for John Gosden and put up an RPR of 88 at Newcastle over a mile last time, s 85 could be a good opening mark. We Are The World is only up 2lbs for winning at Wolverhampton but that was a slowly run race so the form may not be up to much. Dawn Dancer is a half-brother to the late Ballet Concerto so may improve now a three-year-old.  

I am hoping for a good run from Arthenia here, she might not be good enough to win at this stage but I do think she is overpriced.

1 pt win ARTHENIA (14/1 Sky Bet, Power)

Dark Horses To Follow For 2018

Ten horses to follow for the 2018 flat season. I have tried to include the less obvious horses that have raced at the end of the flat season and over the winter.

Cross Counter (Charlie Appleby)

Sire – Teofilo. Dam – Waitress.

Made a very eye-catching debut at Wolverhampton where he was the lesser fancied of the two Godolphin runners.  Cross Counter fell out of the stalls that day then ran quite wide throughout before effortlessly sweeping round the field to win under hands and heals, pulling further away the further he went. I was quite disappointed when he turned out again in January as would no longer be under the radar going into the 2018 flat season. He most likely needed the experience after running so green on debut. He was more professional on second start and bolted up under a penalty. He isn’t entered in the Derby but is a very exciting prospect for this season.

Ejtyah (David Simcock)

Sire – Frankel. Dam – Darysina.

Ran only once as a two-year-old, in a small novice event at Chelmsford.  Although the official winning margin was just half a length, the front two pulled four lengths clear of the other horses. The form of those other horses in behind does not look strong, however. She settled at the back of the field, before making a sustained effort in the straight. Jamie Spencer gave her just one stroke with the whip to which she responded and won a shade cosily. David Simcock said after the race she is a horse with a future that will eventually make a good stayer.

Glendevon (Richard Hughes)

Sire – Scat Daddy. Dam – Flip Flop

For me, this was probably the most impressive winner of a novice race over the winter. On debut, Glendevon was very green and keen throughout before staying on very strongly into second, pulling clear of the rest of the field and given quite an easy ride in doing so. On second start he made all, really kicking clear about a furlong and a half out with a very impressive stride length. He destroyed some quite useful horses in behind. The second won next time and will begin in handicap company off a mark of 90. I hope this horse runs the Craven Stakes before going onto the 2000 Guineas (currently 33/1) if handling Newmarket.

Mr Ritz (Jeremy Noseda)

Sire – Oasis Dream. Dam - Que Puntual

A half-brother to Oceanographer, Mr Ritz was impressive on his only start. He was drawn widest of all 13 runners, didn’t break very well from the stalls but still managed to get a very handy position throughout the race. He then battled it out with a horse that had already had a run; beating it whilst running green in the straight and pulling ten lengths clear of the rest of the field. What was even more impressive is that the horse was extremely hard to pull up after the race. This will make a very exciting three-year-old.

Photographer (John Gosden)

Sire – New Approach. Dam – Approach

Very well related – a half-brother to Midas Touch and Coronet, unsurprisingly Photographer made his debut over 10f. He raced keenly throughout but still picked up very well in the final straight and stayed on very well to the line. You could say the second was a bit unlucky as Photographer got first run on him that day and both look very promising types.  John Gosden’s colt can be backed at 50/1 for the Derby.

Showroom (Mark Johnston)

Sire – Motivator. Dam – Lemon Twist

Looked smart on debut at Goodwood.  Showroom looked like a strong galloper as he made all and powered away from the rest of the field. He could be anything and is worth keeping an eye on this season.

Symbolization (Charlie Appleby)

Sire – Cape Cross. Dam – Yorkshire Lass

By the excellent sire Cape Cross, whose progeny progress well. The dam has won over a mile and a half and two miles one furlong so I would expect Symbolization to be able to race over middle distances as a three-year-old. He was strongly fancied on debut in a Newmarket maiden where he ran very respectably in second behind the 99-rated Vintager. He didn’t quite have the pace of the winner, which isn’t surprising given his breeding. He pulled three lengths clear of Chilean, who ran well in an excellent renewal of the Racing Post Trophy. Symbolization built on that debut run next time when beating Glendevon at Kempton. He is a big colt who will make a three-figure horse this season.

The Revenant (Hugo Palmer)

Sire – Dubawi. Dam – Hazel Lavery

I was impressed this horse’s attitude on debut, where he battled on well to the line to comfortably beat a horse that is now rated 87. He took a bit of time to get going that day but he is out of a mare who won over one and a half miles and preferred cut in the ground so will eventually be better when upped in trip. He then ran in a conditions race on heavy ground at Epsom. He came third in this race but I think he will turn out to be the best horse in the race. The front two ran prominently throughout in quite a slowly run race, whereas, The Revenant was held up in last. When The Revenant mounted his effort he ran all over the track and looked quite inexperienced. I think he will have learnt a lot from that and can currently be backed at 66/1 for the Derby.

Wadilsafa (Owen Burrows)

Sire – Frankel. Dam – Rumoush

A half-brother to Talaayeb and Muntazah, Wadilsafa has raced once and is still a maiden. He ran in an excellent maiden at Ascot behind Herculean, just lacking the pace of the winner. The race was over seven furlongs so he will appreciate a step up in trip. The form of that maiden is working out quite well, as Archie McKellar (had race experience), was back in third and is now rated 103.  Merlin Magic was five lengths behind Wadilsafa and deemed good enough to run in the Racing Post Trophy. This horse should contend group races this season.

Without Parole (John Gosden)

Sire – Frankel. Dam – Without You Babe

Hard not to be impressed by the manner of his victory on debut at Newcastle, but it is important to remember he was getting 4lbs from the second and third horses. He is a half-brother to Tamarkuz and could be absolutely anything, however, I may have raised expectations of this one after his trainer sent Enable to win at Newcastle on her debut.

Three-year-old handicappers to follow: Part 7

Just four horses to finish the handicappers. Next will be the dark horses.

Tum Tum	Half-brother to Travel Brother, third in the 2000 Guineas behind Dawn Approach. Tum Tum made an encouraging debut at Newmarket, staying on for fifth in a race where the fourth, sixth and seventh have won since (First three home haven’t been seen since the race). He was a beaten favourite on second start, but the run was still promising as he was hampered a couple of times in the final two furlongs. The winner of that race is now rated 87. The sixth and seventh have also won novice races since. On his final start as a 2-year-old, he bumped into the useful looking Glencadam Master. He comfortably beat the rest of the field and wasn’t given a hard race when it became clear he didn’t have the pace to match the winner. His siblings have won over a range of distances from 6f to 10f, though they have mainly been by sprinting stallions. This horse should get at least 8-10f and be very competitive off this mark.	80
Twister	Cost 50,000 Euros as a yearling and is by Hurricane Run whose progeny progress well with age. Twister’s brothers have won over 12f and 13f, which suggests a step up in trip is needed as a three-year-old. He was quite a late foal (end of April) and has had three educational runs towards the end of 2017, which indicates he is being trained with next season in mind. His most eye-catching run came on his second start at Wolverhampton where he was only beaten six lengths behind John Gosden’s Wissahickon.  He was only ridden under hands and heels that day and would have finished much closer if given a different ride. On his third start, he was given a different ride, closer up to the pace before fading as expected.  This one looks pretty well in, but will most probably be well found out in the market on handicap debut given shrewd connections.	66
Universal Command	Probably one of the riskier horses of my three-year-olds to follow. I think this horse has been given quite a tough opening handicap mark based on what he has done to date. Roger Charlton’s gelding has been included partly on breeding and when hinting at showing signs of ability on final start as a two-year-old. He is a half-brother to Imperial Aviator who also didn’t win at two. Having said that, Imperial Aviator had shown a higher level of form as a two-year-old than Universal Command. Universal Command was highly tried in two solid novice races at Newbury when he ran green and probably lacked the pace and class to get any closer to the leaders. Expectations were lowered on his final two-year-old start in a muddling race at Kempton, which resulted in a shock 100/1 winner. He looked quite slow but stuck on for fourth. A risky proposition but is still with Roger Charlton so that must be a positive.	74
Victory Chime	A half-sister to the useful Pealer for John Gosden last season, Victory Chime ran her best race on debut at Nottingham, where she travelled strongly throughout before being outpaced in the straight but stayed on nicely. The first three horses haven’t run since but the fourth has won a handicap off 74 and the sixth bolted up next time in a similar event at Nottingham. Victory Chime ran in the latter race but finished nine lengths behind the winner, she never got into the race and again stayed on late in the day. I would be slightly concerned after her worst performance was in her final race to date at Kempton, racing wide throughout. The promise she showed on her first two starts, travelling well before being outpaced indicates that she will be much better once upped in trip, on a galloping track.	72

Three-year-old handicappers to follow: Part 6

The penultimate post in the handicappers to follow for 2018 series. Hopefully the final one will be available before the start of the flat season at Doncaster on Saturday.

Sheikha Reika	A 550,000 GNS full sister to Lumiere. Her first start was in an Ascot novice race, where she took a while to pick up but finished her race off really nicely. She looked to have her second race in the bag a furlong out at Newmarket but got turned over at odds-on in the last few strides (First two pulled four lengths clear). The third horse, Hadith, has won twice since and is now rated 97. Hadith did beat Sheikha Reika and reverse the form at Nottingham next time but this was on soft ground getting first run on Sheikha Reika. Given Sheikha Reika’s high level of two-year-old form and her pedigree, she has the ability to make a three-figure three-year-old. It is slightly concerning that she has finished second three times, but I would be tempted to persist with her for the next couple of starts.	83
Silver Crescent	Didn’t show much on first two starts in strong maidens and Goodwood and Newmarket. He was badly outpaced both starts and didn’t show a lot. He was subsequently gelded and showed some improvement on his third start on the AW, again outpaced but picked up nicely in the final furlong. He is by Champs Elysees, whose progeny progress well from two to three. Silver Crescent’s full brother was bought in July 2017 by Rich Ricci to run over hurdles. He’s also a half-brother to Ice blue who finished seventh in a French Derby.  He showed much more after a gelding operation and his breeding suggests he should make a much better three-year-old when stepped up in trip, though the handicapper has been quite harsh on achievements to date.	70
Spark of War	Very green on debut on heavy ground, first three in the race pulled clear and Spark of War was given an easy ride back in fourth.  He improved slightly on second start but again was very green. Spark of War was surprisingly dropped in trip on final start and ridden differently but was not quick enough to do himself justice. Those three runs were within a month so he has quickly got a handicap mark. He is by Declaration of War, who improved from two to three and his dam won a listed and G3 race over 12f as a three-year-old, so there is some hope for improvement this year.  A 65,000 purchase from a good family so connections will expect him to build on his opening mark.	69
Stephensons Rocket	Green out of the stalls and a little keen on debut. Looked to have the race won but ran green in front and outpaced before being beaten by a more experienced rival at Sandown. He didn’t have to improve to go one better at Redcar next time, though he was quite keen again. He showed a good attitude at Redcar, pulling further away from the field the further he went. The form of that win could be questionable but Stephensons Rocket is a big scopey colt who should be competitive in top mile and half handicaps this season or even group races if he learns to settle. He hasn’t been given a mark yet but a best guess would be mid 80s.	N/A
Stream Song	A half-sister to top class filly, Journey. Stream Song was quite green on her first two starts. The first time at Ascot where she was produced with a run but faded and was given a hands and heels ride.  She was then unsuited by a steadily run race on her second start at Doncaster. She looked to get the hang of things on her third start, staying on very strongly and winning a shade cosy, putting up an RPR of 84. The third horse in that race has won in listed company since. Given her half-sister was a late developer, there is almost certainly more to come upped in trip as a three-year-old, off a mark, which she should build on with few problems.	83
Thunderbolt Rocks	By Farhh, cost 57,000gns as a yearling. This colt’s grand dam produced the disqualified winner of a 1000 guineas, Jacqueline Quest. Thunderbolt Rocks was very green on debut at Newbury, looking outpaced early on and finishing well down the field. On his second start at Wolverhampton he again looked green, having missed the break and being shuffled back early on. He got the hang of things in the home straight, sweeping round the field and stay on strongly to win. It was hard not to be impressed by the manner in which he picked up and won. The form might not be up to much but the fifth in that race won off 81. This horse will certainly develop as a three-year-old and if given a mark in the low 80s, should win races.	N/A