Tuesday 24th July 2018

 19.40 Chelmsford

Hollydaze may prove tough to beat, putting up an excellent RPR last time, but the verdict goes to Tum Tum, who represents an in-form stable and is bred to be better than his mark.

Half-brother to Travel Brother (formerly Van Der Neer), third in the 2000 Guineas behind Dawn Approach. Tum Tum made an encouraging debut at Newmarket, staying on for fifth in a race where the fourth, sixth and seventh have won since (First three home haven’t been seen since the race). He was a beaten favourite on second start, but the run was still promising as he was hampered a couple of times in the final two furlongs. The winner of that race is now rated 87. The sixth and seventh have also won novice races since. On his final start as a 2-year-old, he bumped into the useful looking Glencadam Master. He comfortably beat the rest of the field and wasn’t given a hard race when it became clear he didn’t have the pace to match the winner. His siblings have won over a range of distances from 6f to 10f, though they have mainly been by sprinting stallions. This horse should get at least 8-10f and be very competitive off this mark.

1 pt win TUM TUM (9/2 general)

4.20 Newcastle

Miss Bates isn’t in my handicappers to follow but I think is worth a bet.  She didn’t run a bad race at Thirsk last time after missing the break and was given an easy enough ride when beat, so it is interesting she is turned out again pretty quickly. She is 3 lbs lower than when putting up a decent effort (beat 2.5 lengths) over course and distance last year. Ann Duffield is in good form at present and the application of first time cheek pieces adds to her case.

1 pt win MISS BATES (9/1 Bet365)

Saturday 9th June 2018

Last Saturday, Diocletian won at Doncaster at 33/1. He was in my three-year-old handicappers to follow for the season. I didn’t get round to posting about him so won’t be making the same mistake twice. Two bets for today:

15.35 Beverley 

Narodowa ran a stormer last time at a massive price, no such price today but a big performance expected.

This horse was highly tried in three novice events between August and September. She was far too green to do herself justice in first race at Newmarket (winner since won UAE 1000 guineas trial). She produced an eye-catching second run at Salisbury, missing the break before finishing off really well into fifth. Her final race didn’t inspire confidence but she may have been running for a mark. She might not suit Newmarket as she ran much better on her only run away from that venue at Salisbury. She is a half-sister to the useful Ransom Note, so I would expect to see a decent amount of improvement from two to three.

1 pt win Narodowa (3/1 general)

16.50 Newmarket

Arthenia has just started to get the hang of things, getting up late on at Catterick last time out. I expect her to continue improving.

A Camelot filly costing 50,000 GNS. Arthenia was very green in the early stages of a strong novice race at Newbury on debut, staying on well in the final two furlongs. She produced a decent run in a good juvenile race on her third start after being very slowly away. There is stamina in the family so Arthenia will be well suited by a step up in trip. The first two in her third race are both now rated 94, which suggests she is starting life on a lenient mark.

1 pt win Arthenia (11/2 Ladbrokes, Skybet)

Wednesday 30th May 2018

15.20 Nottingham

Melodies was supposed to run in a handicap at Chelmsford about 3 weeks ago but was a NR under veterinary advice. That looked a stronger race than this and hopefully she’ll be thereabouts. Jim Crowley who rides Nottingham particularly well, gets the leg up.

Dam is a half-sister to Mount Nelson and Monitor Closely. Melodies made an encouraging debut at Salisbury doing good late work under hands and heels. She did well in two subsequent novice races. She beat the highly regarded Veracious in her second race before running well on her final start in a Kempton novice race, which is also working out well. Given her grand dam produced Mount Nelson, she has potential over trips around 10f. Her opening mark is not lenient but I think she could still be competitive given her good level of form so far.

1 pt win MELODIES (8/1 Bet365)

Tuesday 29th May 2018

Caradoc was very impressive on Saturday and is definitely one to keep on side going forward. I didn’t advise a specific bet so won’t be including it in the stats. Master Grey was poor bringing the total is down to +13.75 pts.

2 from the handicappers to follow and 1 eye-catcher tomorrow.

13.40 Lingfield

Port of Call ran in cheek pieces on handicap debut and wears them again at Lingfield tomorrow. He hung quite badly throughout last time and doesn’t look the most straightforward ride. He needs to come on for that run, as this race looks better; Beachwalk and Global Spirit look like they have live chances.

Given three quick runs in September to get him handicapped. Made an eye-catching debut at Sandown, when missing the break but stayed on well in a strong race, where the second, fourth, fifth, ninth and twelfth have all won since. He didn’t handle Epsom on his second start, so that effort can be ignored. No match for a decent looking winner on third start at Kempton, given a hands and heels ride once beaten. He has since been gelded and put away for the winter. The only reservation is that his pedigree doesn’t scream stamina. He looks to have some ability, based on his debut run, so he should be able to pick up a handicap off this mark on a flat galloping track.

1 pt win PORT OF CALL (7/1 general)

16.20 Leicester

This looks really competitive with last time out winners Nibras Galaxy and Immortal Romance holding strong chances of following up. I put Robinson Crusoe in my tracker after his run last time at Nottingham, he flew home in a decent looking handicap over a mile and the extra 2 furlongs look ideal here. I will stick with Ghazan, whose novice form has worked out well and looks like he could be well ahead of his mark if progressing as I would expect from two to three. I do expect plenty of winners to come out of this race.

Half-brother to Ayrad and Dawn of Hope, costing 70,000 Euros as a yearling. Ghazan made steady progress in his three starts as a two-year-old to get him handicapped. First time out, he ran at Salisbury running green and wide throughout. His third start at Nottingham was his best, in a race that is working out quite well so far. Ghazan served it up to the odds-on favourite (a promising Camelot two-year-old with John Gosden) quite a way out and did well to go with him as far as he did. The fourth in that race has since won a handicap off 74 and the 6^th horse bolted up in a maiden by 6 lengths next time out. Ghazan is bred to be better than his opening mark and if he continues to make progress then should be up to winning a handicap.

1 pt win GHAZAN (5/1 Sky bet)

One of my eye-catchers over the winter was Highland Sky who runs in the 14.30 at Redcar (4/1 general). He has looked very slow on all of his starts to date so it is no surprise to see him tackle 1 mile 6 on handicap debut. He wears a hood for the first time and 12 of the 18 runners David Simcock has sent to Redcar over the past 5 seasons have finished 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th.

Saturday 26th May 2018

Not a great day for my selections today, the total is down to +14.75 pts

16.10 Curragh

Symbolization is one of my dark horses for the season. He needs to improve significantly on what he has achieved to date if he is to make the frame here and I think 14/1 is too short so won’t be advising a bet.

Symbolization (Charlie Appleby)

Sire – Cape Cross. Dam – Yorkshire Lass

By the excellent sire Cape Cross, whose progeny progress well. The dam has won over a mile and a half and two miles one furlong so I would expect Symbolization to be able to race over middle distances as a three-year-old. He was strongly fancied on debut in a Newmarket maiden where he ran very respectably in second behind the 99-rated Vintager. He didn’t quite have the pace of the winner, which isn’t surprising given his breeding. He pulled three lengths clear of Chilean, who ran well in an excellent renewal of the Racing Post Trophy. Symbolization built on that debut run next time when beating Glendevon at Kempton. He is a big colt who will make a three-figure horse this season.

19.50 Salisbury

This selection is from my handicappers to follow and is certainly not a strong fancy. Master Grey won a 3 runner handicap last time out in bottomless ground over 1 mile 6 and faces different conditions tomorrow. Powerful Society is the interesting alternative after a striking run last time.

90,000 GNS yearling, brother to the useful dual listed winner, Carnachy. Has shown signs of ability on his first three runs before being gelded. The first was over 6f at Nottingham where he was both outpaced and green before starting to understand his job late on to pass a few horses. He was able to run up with the pace on his second start before fading and then being badly squeezed and hampered. His third run looked very much like an ‘educational’ run, never troubling the leaders and given a hands and heels ride. Master Grey definitely has ability and will only be able to show his best when upped in trip. His opening mark looks quite lenient.

1 pt win MASTER GREY (11/2 general)

An eyecatcher over the winter was Caradoc who runs in the 1.45 at Chester. He was an expensive purchase who travelled nicely on his only start to date in what looks a decent race where the winner, Highbrow ran well in the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood today. My only concern would be if he possesses the speed to win this. He looks a big strong horse who gets 6lbs off two rivals ahead of him in the betting and I fancy him to beat them and is probably worth a bet at 7/2 (Bet 365, BetVictor).