Three-year-old handicappers to follow: Part 3

Diocletian	Stayed on well quite well without ever getting a proper run in what looks like a very good Sandown maiden on debut. He then had two runs at Newmarket where he didn't handle the track particularly well. The first time over a mile getting outpaced and staying on nicely under hands and heels then last time over 10f where he still looked quite green. The dam was a half-sister to two 10f-listed winners so Diocletian could be best over 10f as a three-year-old and may be suited by a flat track.	76
Dubai Frame	A 140,000 GNS yearling by Sixties Icon, who was given three runs over about three weeks in the autumn. Is a half-brother to three horses who all stayed over 10f and one is Sleep Easy who has won at 2m 5f over hurdles. He has run so far like he needs a step up in trip. He didn’t show much on debut in a hot Newmarket novice race over 7f. He stepped up on that effort at Nottingham next time showing signs of ability whilst still running green. He was given a more prominent ride in his third race, but as expected was outpaced a couple of furlongs out and given an easy ride once beaten.	67
Elusif	By Elusive Quality, who’s progeny can progress nicely from two to three. He was promising on debut but went backwards on subsequent runs. He probably didn’t suit the all-weather on his third start so that run can be dismissed. His dam’s best RPR was 101 on firm ground. Elusif is a risky proposition based on what he has done so far, but I think there will be improvement on a decent surface over a mile as a three-year-old.	73
Gather	Juddmonte bred, out of a Dansili mare, who is one of the best dam sires. Gather was pitched into a class two maiden on debut where she wasn’t disgraced. She then ran two solid races on the all-weather, which have both worked out well. On her second start, she was a clear second, beaten four lengths by a horse giving her three lbs, who is now rated 99. She was beaten less than a length on her third start. The fourth has since won, putting up an RPR of 86 in the process and the 6th horse in the race (beaten over 8 lengths by Gather) has won since and now rated 80. This suggests Gather is very well handicapped off 77. Her mare was unraced at two and has produced some nice 9-10f horses. I’m not sure exactly what trip she wants but I think she’s currently very well handicapped and ought to pick up some decent prizes as a three-year-old.	77
Ghazan	Half-brother to Ayrad and Dawn of Hope, costing 70,000 Euros as a yearling. He made steady progress in his three starts as a two-year-old to get him handicapped. First time out, he ran at Salisbury running green and wide throughout. His third start at Nottingham was his best, in a race that is working out quite well so far. Ghazan served it up to the odds-on favourite (a promising Camelot two-year-old with John Gosden) quite a way out and did well to go with him as far as he did. The fourth in that race has since won a handicap off 74 and the 6th horse bolted up in a maiden by 6 lengths next time out. Ghazan is bred to be better than his opening mark and if he continues to make progress then should be up to winning a handicap.	75

Three-year-old handicappers to follow: Part 2

The next post in a series of blogs looking to identify some three-year-old handicap winners for 2018. There are some risky ones here so hopefully their prices will reflect this.

Horse

Comment

Rating

Bombyx	Showed a good attitude when winning against some good types on second start following a promising debut in a strong race at Newmarket. Bombyx has a proper middle distance pedigree being by Derby winner, Sir Percy. The dam has produced five horses with RPRs over 100, four of which were best over a mile and a half. Bombyx doesn’t have an official rating but a best guess would be mid 80s. I think he has the potential to be a three-figure horse.	N/A
Born To Spend	Born to Sea half-sister to Celestial Halo, who has not shown much on three starts so far for Ian Williams. Born To Spend is closely related to a two miler with an RPR of 99 with the same trainer. Ian Williams is a shrewd operator, so this horse could win a couple of prizes once significantly stepped up in trip as a three-year-old. Starts off on a low mark and is worth a try in staying handicaps.	55
Camden Town	Godolphin bred and sold to Roger Fell before seeing a racecourse. This horse may have been written off too early, as is often the case with plenty of well-bred horses. Camden Town was well beaten behind the mighty impressive Without Parole on his third start at Newcastle. Although he was soundly beaten, he did show some signs of ability and is almost certain to be better at three than at two. Camden Town is a half-brother to 2m hurdle winner Chesterfield and may be worth risking in middle distance handicaps off a low mark.	58
Chantresse	A Karl Burke filly who’s best two runs of her three to date have come on soft ground, she is a half-sister to Iveagh Gardens (RPR 109), who acted best on heavy ground. She made good late headway at Catterick on her third start, the form of which looks somewhat questionable, however. Her mark isn’t that lenient but she has shown some promise on her first three starts and should be competitive in soft ground handicaps.	68
Contrebasse	Had three good educational runs to get a mark towards the back end of the season. The first run can be dismissed as it was run on unsuitably heavy ground. He stayed on nicely in a York novice event on second start and his pedigree suggests he will be suited by a step up in trip. The progeny of Champs Elysees progress well and are better suited by decent ground. His mark is fair and his dam has produced multiple winners, so I would be surprised if Contrebasse doesn’t get his head in front this season.	65

Three-year-old handicappers to follow: Part 1

A series of blogs featuring around 30 potentially well-handicapped three-year-olds for 2018. These horses are likely to have been lightly raced as a two-year-old with their three-year-old campaign in mind. Aiming to make a solid profit by the end of the season.

Horse	Comment	Rating
Antagonist	A Bjorn Neilsen homebred with a nice middle distance pedigree. Antagonist is a half-brother to Almodovar who was a slow developer, starting life in handicaps off a mark of 80, showing steady progress, before placing in a Hardwicke a year later. Antagonist was quite green on debut and stayed on well in a decent novice event, in which four horses have come out and won since. He was still very green on his third run at Kempton and given an easy ride behind the leaders. He wasn’t far behind Court House that day who is now rated 92. I suspect his opening mark will be lenient given how his half brother progressed and the greenness he showed on his first three outings.	73
Arthenia	A Camelot filly costing 50,000 GNS. Arthenia was very green in the early stages of a strong novice race at Newbury on debut, staying on well in the final two furlongs. She produced a decent run in a good juvenile race on her third start after being very slowly away. There is stamina in the family so Arthenia will be well suited by a step up in trip. The first two in her third race are both now rated 94, which suggests she is starting life on a lenient mark.	71
Becky Sharp	By Foxwedge, an Australian stallion who’s first crop progressed quite nicely from two to three. Becky Sharp was highly tried in a strong Sandown maiden on her second start but was hampered and eased over 3f out. She was better on her third start, putting up an RPR of 59 in a race that has produced winners. She may be a little risky and her breeding gives mixed messages over her best trip but her trainer does well with three-year-old handicappers and opening mark is fair.	62